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Reply rate check: should I keep sending these export emails?
Enter the buyers you have emailed and the replies so far. Against what that market usually gives, you see whether to keep going, change one thing or move to the next market, and whom to email this week.
We take the reply rate Korean export emails from the same industry got in this market (all industries when there is no industry data) and work out how many replies your number of sends should bring. Luck alone moves the count up and down, so that spread (the 5–95% of a Poisson distribution) is the normal range your replies are compared with. The target is the number of sends it takes to get 10 replies, and the decision comes once 95% of the target is sent. Fewer than 5 replies means the next market, 5 to 9 means change one thing and send once more, and 10 or more means keep going. Before that, we project where this pace lands at the target, and if it falls short of 5, the check says to change one thing now instead of waiting. Nothing is judged before 200 sends. It is the same calculation as My progress in the one-page plan.
- Do I count emails or buyers? Buyers. If one buyer got the first email and two follow-ups, count 1. Counting follow-ups inflates sends two or three times and makes the verdict look worse than it is.
- Does a “no” count as a reply? Yes. Any reply written by a person counts, including a no. Leave out auto-replies, out-of-office notices and bounces. Enter the replies that lead somewhere (a question, a sample request, a meeting) in the interested field to also check reply quality.
- I emailed 200 buyers and got no replies. Should I switch markets? It is too early. At the average reply rate (7 per 1,000 buyers), 200 sends are expected to bring 1.4 replies, so zero often happens by luck alone. First check that your emails are not landing in spam, and decide once you have sent the target.
- Where are my numbers saved? This tool does not save them. To keep a weekly log, open the one-page plan and enter your numbers every Monday. The log stays in that browser, and when you log in it is also saved to your account, so your team and your connected AI see the same numbers.
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